On the money – Will Biden’s rail deal backfire?

Railroad workers say their peers are preparing to leave after being disappointed with the treaty enforced by Congress and signed by President Biden.

We’ll also look at the fight over the child tax credit and the Trump Organization’s guilty verdict in a tax fraud case.

But first, follow here for live Georgia Senate results.

Welcome to On The Money, your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line. For The Hill we are Sylvan Lane, Aris Folley and Karl Evers-Hillstrom. Someone forwarded this newsletter to you? Sign up here or in the box below.

Workers warn of exodus after Congress pushes deal ahead

Railroad workers could leave the industry after Congress enforced a contract that gave them no special paid sick leave, an exodus that would sweep through an economy that relies on railroads to move goods.

The exit of thousands of train crew and engineers would be felt by big business and US consumers alike. It could slow delivery of groceries, fuel and online orders while strangling already shaky supply chains.

“I don’t think half the workforce is going to go away, but a good percentage, and we can’t afford for anyone to go because we’re so understaffed anyway,” said Hugh Sawyer, an Atlanta-based engineer at Norfolk Southern .

  • Those hoping for a strong contract could be looking for a new job after the deal didn’t include paid sick leave, or put an end to strict attendance policies and grueling schedules that require workers to be on standby at all times.
  • Any brain drain would only exacerbate staff shortages caused by the railroads shedding around 30 percent of their workforce over the past six years.
  • This in turn has resulted in exhausted workers and continued delays and cancellations as demand for shipped products surged.
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Here’s when it might happen: Workers say some employees may leave once they receive paybacks and cash bonuses, which average about $16,000 per person. The railways will pay out this money within 60 days.

Karl has the details here.

🚨 GUILTY

Trump Organization found guilty of tax fraud

A New York jury on Tuesday found the Trump Organization guilty of tax fraud after a more than month-long trial.

The jury began deliberating Monday and returned a guilty verdict Tuesday afternoon, according to The Associated Press.

Former President Trump himself did not stand trial, but prosecutors from the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office showed jurors evidence that Trump had signed bonus checks and memos that helped top executives avoid reporting taxable income.

After the verdict, the Trump Organization could be fined up to $1.6 million.

The Hill’s Brad dress has more to offer here.

📈 RATE EXPECTATIONS

Negotiators are digging into the spending bill via tax credits

Individual and corporate tax credits are available when negotiations for a year-end spending deal hit the ground running.

  • Possible credits range from expanding the Child Tax Credit (CTC), which was beefed up during the pandemic and eating away at child poverty in the US, to incentives for companies to invest more in research.
  • Negotiators on both sides of the aisle say they are working on tax rules and that getting a spending deal in place before a new Congress arrives in 2023 and voting dynamics on Capitol Hill becomes more difficult to predict is a high priority.
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Though support for the various tax rules isn’t perfectly split across party lines, Democrats largely argue in favor of loans targeted at workers and low-income families, while Republicans are calling for an extension of the Trump administration’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act enable companies to keep more of their money.

Tobias Burns and Aris break it down here.

Working Committee: Apple interfered in the organization

Apple illegally interfered in union organizing efforts at an Atlanta store by holding mandatory meetings to discourage union membership, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) found.

The NLRB also found legitimacy behind allegations that the Apple Store at Cumberland Mall in Atlanta interviewed workers about union support and activities, solicited grievances and told workers that union membership would result in less favorable employment terms.

The Communications Workers of America (CWA), a national communications and media union, initially filed a complaint against the Apple Cumberland Mall in May. The CWA previously requested a union election at the store, but withdrew their request due to “repeated violations by Apple.”

Julia Shapero from The Hill has more here.

Good to know

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has blasted colleges for misleading students in financial aid letters about the total cost of attendance in a new report.

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According to the GAO report, 91 percent of colleges underestimated the net cost of attending their institution or did not include it in student financial aid offerings.

Other things we keep an eye on:

  • Rental car company Hertz announced Monday it will pay $168 million to settle claims from 364 customers related to the company falsely reporting that they stole vehicles, resulting in some customers being arrested jail had to.
  • Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has imposed a ban on TikTok in the state executive branch, citing security concerns over China-based owner Byte Dance.

That’s it for today. Thank you for reading. Visit The Hill’s finance page for the latest news and reports. we will see you tomorrow

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